Webinar: Modelling of Future Flood Risk Across Canada Under Climate Change

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Climate change has induced changes in key climate variables and hydrological cycle across Canada. With continuous emission of greenhouse gases, this trend is expected to continue over the 21st century and beyond.

In this study, a macro-scaled hydrodynamic model is used to simulate 25 km resolution daily streamflow across Canada for historical (1961-2005) and future (2061-2100) timelines. Future projections from 21 GCMs following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are used for analysis. Changes in the frequency and magnitude of historical 100-year and 250-year return period flood events and month of occurrence of peak flow are analyzed. Results obtained from uncertainty analysis for both return period flood events found that flood frequency will increase in most of the northern Canada, southern Ontario, southern British Columbia, northern Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

Presenter: Slobodan P. Simonovic
Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Western Ontario
Director of Engineering Studies, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction